Red Dead Redemption, Rockstar’s “most ambitious game to date” (though not on the PS3), has been a huge commercial and critical success, but still needs to sell at least 4 million copies just to break even, analysts say.
The game’s development cost is estimated to be in excess of 70 million dollars, “suggesting a 4.0 million unit ship break-even estimate,” says one analyst.
However, the game looks to be on course to easily meet even this huge figure, says another:
“On the heels of a large marketing campaign and impressive critical acclaim Red Dead is selling extremely well, and should lead to Q3 guidance above consensus.
We believe management originally budgeted Red Dead to ship 1-2M units during the quarter, but is now seeing demand for at least 2-3M units.
As a result, many retailers were quickly left out of stock, which is now driving robust re-orders. As a result, we think Take-Two could see sales of 3M units in the July quarter, and as much as 4-5M units by the end of the year. We are raising our Q3 estimates to reflect 3M units, up from 2M units.”
This would mean total sales in the region of a quarter of a billion dollars – certainly a blockbuster by any standard.