Recent findings indicate that at current rates of growth, Touhou related doujin circles could within several years cause Comiket to be rebranded Touhouket, and force the event to move to an even larger venue than the Big Sight; that is, if Reitaisai doesn’t overshadow or absorb the event entirely.
The data is unambiguous:
Extracted from the event catalogue are the numbers of Touhou related circles:
| コミケ番号 | サークル数 |
|---|---|
| 65 （2003年：冬） |
7 |
| 66 （2004年：夏） |
50 |
| 67 （2004年：冬） |
98 |
| 68 （2005年：夏） |
229 |
| 69 （2005年：冬） |
232 |
| 70 （2006年：夏） |
366 |
| 71 （2006年：冬） |
574 |
| 72 （2007年：夏） |
558 |
| 73 （2007年：冬） |
793 |
| 74 （2008年：夏） |
885 |
An extrapolation of growth at current levels:
Given that one hall only accommodates 1,500 circles, the danger of a Touhou induced event collapse is looming.
This of course rests on the continuation of the rapid growth in these circles, which some might reasonably argue should not be expected to continue indefinitely, else we would soon be expecting large areas of the planet given over entirely to Touhou doujin production, a prospect some might not find undesirable.
How long must we wait for the anime at this rate?
The source of this insightful analysis. See below also for a look at Reitaisai as well.
Further evidence (bracketed number is the number of participating Touhou circles):
| 時期 | 出来事 |
|---|---|
| 2003年8月 | コミックマーケット64 （参加サークル数：0） |
| 「東方妖々夢 ～ Perfect Cherry Blossom.」 頒布 | |
| 2003年12月 | コミックマーケット65 （参加サークル数：7） |
| 「蓮台野夜行 ～ Ghostly Field Club」 頒布 | |
| 2004年4月 | 第1回博麗神社例大祭 （参加サークル数：114） |
| 2004年8月 | コミックマーケット66 （参加サークル数：50） |
| 「東方永夜抄 ～ Imperishable Night.」 頒布 | |
| 2004年12月 | コミックマーケット67 （参加サークル数：98） |
| 「東方萃夢想 ～ Immaterial and Missing Power.」 頒布 | |
| 2005年5月 | 第2回博麗神社例大祭（参加サークル数：362） |
| 2005年8月 | コミックマーケット68 （参加サークル数：229） |
| 「東方花映塚 ～ Phantasmagoria of Flower View.」 頒布 | |
| 2005年9月 | 東方紅楼夢（参加サークル数：168） |
| 2005年12月 | コミックマーケット69 （参加サークル数：232） |
| 「東方文花帖 ～ Shoot the Bullet.」 頒布 | |
| 2006年5月 | 第3回博麗神社例大祭（参加サークル数：680） |
| 「卯酉東海道 ～ Retrospective 53 minutes」 頒布 | |
| 「幺樂団の歴史1 Akyu’s Untouched Score vol.1」 頒布 | |
| 2006年8月 | コミックマーケット70 （参加サークル数：366） |
| 「大空魔術 ～ Magical Astronomy」 頒布 | |
| 2006年11月 | 東方紅楼夢2 （参加サークル数：338） |
| 2006年12月 | コミックマーケット71 （参加サークル数：574） |
| 「幺樂団の歴史2 Akyu’s Untouched Score vol.2」 頒布 | |
| 「幺樂団の歴史3 Akyu’s Untouched Score vol.3」 頒布 | |
| 2007年5月 | 第4回博麗神社例大祭 （参加サークル数：653） |
| 2007年8月 | コミックマーケット72 （参加サークル数：558） |
| 「東方風神録 ～ Mountain of Faith.」 頒布 | |
| 2007年11月 | 東方紅楼夢3 （参加サークル数：463） |
| 2007年12月 | コミックマーケット73 （参加サークル数：793） |
| 「幺樂団の歴史4 Akyu’s Untouched Score vol.4」 頒布 | |
| 「幺樂団の歴史5 Akyu’s Untouched Score vol.5」 頒布 | |
| 「黄昏酒場 Uwabami Breakers」 頒布 | |
| 2008年5月 | 第5回博麗神社例大祭 （参加サークル数：1,086） |
| 「東方緋想天 ～ Scarlet Weather Rhapsody.」 頒布 | |
| 2008年8月 | コミックマーケット74 （参加サークル数：885） |
Expansion at the behest of readers:
According to Hatena, 例大祭 / Reitaisai is already the largest single genre doujinshi event in Japan (and hence the world), and has gotten so large that they actually had to move it from one of the biggest buildings in Tokyo, Sunshine City in Ikebukuro, a huge department store, to none other than the Big Sight itself, where the last event was held. You can see the rapid progression in scale from this list:
- 第1回 2004年東京大田区 Pio
- 第2回 2005年東京港区 東京都産業貿易センター浜松町館
- 第3回 2006年東京池袋 池袋サンシャインシティ文化会館 Dホール
- 第4回 2007年5/20(日)池袋サンシャインシティ文化会館 Dホール
- 第5回 2008年5/25（日）ビッグサイト
No actual participant numbers seem forthcoming from the official site, however. At any rate, it seems plain that it is nearly on a comparable scale to Comiket itself. In fact, on a staff member’s blog, he talks about the vast numbers of people and circles attending, and seems to think further expansion is inevitable.
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i seconded this!!!
Touhou definitely surpass any mainstream series
i have no doubt that there will be touhouket in next few years to come XD
As long as ZUN continue making the game...
i do not see the so called "bubble"
will burst anytime soon
Become mainstream?
Oh great. Just great.
Given these statistics there's a funny feeling I have that the bubble will burst very, very soon. Do you think there already lie certain factors that aren't documented, which could lead to the Touhou bubble getting burst?
Their growth must be unsustainable in the long run, but they seem to have ample room for continued growth in the medium term: they should be able to expect to be picked up by anime and manga publishers at some point, which will knock them firmly into the mainstream. I am reminded of the Fate series...
Undocumented factors? You intrigue me, did you have anything in mind?
i dont think the TH bubble will burst soon even if ZUN died i bet a LOT of fans will continue to churn out doujin games/music/art/manga
i dont know how you define "mainstream" but i have yet to see a series that has inspired THAT amount of doujin circles to have it's own concert tribute (Flowering Night) and being nominated to JMAP to boot~!
http://touhou.wikia.com/
http://www.gensokyo.org/
anyways just passing through
ZUN has said he doesn't think an official anime will happen, since he couldn't pull it off himself and he thinks getting a major studio involved would make the copyright issue too difficult to deal with. I doubt that "official" Touhou works will be more extensive than things like Bougetsushou, barring some huge change in ZUN's outlook on things. Besides, as it is, they've already done official comics with three of the prominent doujin artists; I suspect that comics will probably continue that way, but I don't see a major anime in the offing.
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Touhou_Project
It's a flying shoot'em up game with really popular female characters.
Isn't there already Reitaisai to fill the Touhouket role?
yep, seconded. could you please elaborate on the Reitaisai connection with Comiket, Artefact?
I have expanded the article for you, though unfortunately the same level of data just isn't available as for CM, yet.
I really don't know what this whole Touhou stuff is.
I've seen it in the Kumikyoku Nico Nico Douga, and that's about it.