“Tokyo is Doomed!”: 75% Chance of 7.0 Quake in 4 Years
- Categories: Japan, News
- Date: Jan 24, 2012 17:54 JST
- Tags: Accidents, Buildings, Earthquakes, Science, Statistics, Tokyo
Tokyo faces a 75% chance of a magnitude 7 quake in the next 4 years, say researchers, a figure much higher than the government’s previous estimate of 70% in the next 30 years.
University of Tokyo researchers estimate there is a 75% chance of magnitude 7 quake striking the southern Kanto region in the next 4 years, based the on increased seismic activity observed after the devastating 2011 magnitude 9 quake.
Previous government estimates were only of a 70% chance of such a quake in the next 30 years.
The government estimated in 2006 that a magnitude 7.3 quake striking in Tokyo Bay would kill approximately 5,600 people and injure a further 159,100 – although as there are in the region of 30 million people in the greater Tokyo area, Tokyo is clearly far from a death-trap, and certainly in a much better position than virtually any other major metropolis threatened by natural disasters.
Most of the deaths and damage from the 2011 quake were actually the result of the tsunami, which is not a major risk to Tokyo. The last huge quake to ruin Tokyo, the 7.9 1923 Great Kanto Earthquake, killed at least 105,000 – but this was almost all the result of firestorms running wild amidst largely wooden cities.
Still, Japan’s Reconstruction Minister is desperately trying to convince people not to run away:
Please rest assured, and don’t flee Tokyo.
I can prove this [safety] by pointing to the fact that despite the strong lateral movements triggered by the March 11 earthquake, the shinkansen recovered very quickly. I think this is proof how far our earthquake resistance technology has advanced.
Most would agree that contemporary Japanese disaster-preparedness is second-to-none, so the prospects of massive casualties are remote – although this was supposed to be the case for the nuclear plants at Fukushima, and over the years there have also been periodic scandals involving less than earthquake resistant construction, suggesting there is still the risk of unpleasant surprises.
The experience from the 2011 quake, which saw lingering disruption in eastern Japan despite most of the region being left untouched, also tends to suggest that any disruption to the massively over-centralised national capital region may well have dire economic effects for the rest of Japan and beyond.
The findings themselves are unlikely to be news to Japanese seismologists – many have apparently been keeping quiet about their misgivings until now, so as not to contribute to any regrettably un-Japanese panic or truthfulness.
Online there is everything from abject terror to blasé scepticism evident:
“Tokyo is finished!”
“A 30% chance of it not coming – what a relief!”
“We can finally move the capital in the next 4 years, great.”
“All the 3/11 damage was down to the tsunami. Take care over tsunami and there’s no real problem!”
“No, if it’s directly under Tokyo none of that earthquake resistance will matter at all…”
“Don’t tell me this professor is in the pay of earthquake insurers…”
“What will happen to the Tokyo Sky Tree?”
“Well, if it is underneath I suppose it will fall over. Still, a 7 in the world’s biggest metropolist with 35 million people is going to create pandemonium which will go down in history in any case.”
“Don’t you just love seismologists, giving themselves a 30% margin like that.”
“You people in the regions realise that Tokyo being finished means Japan is finished, I hope?”
“That’s why people are saying to decentralise away from Tokyo…”
“Probably just more government-beholden scholars trying to jack up their budget by causing a stir.”
“They were saying this decades ago. There are always huge quakes in Japan, it’s nothing to worry about now all of a sudden.”
“They’ll be saying exactly the same thing in 10 years.”
“This lot are the same bunch of liars TEPCO has been hiring to push nuclear safety.”
“First, they said no nuclear accident was possible. Now, they say no quake is going to happen in Tokyo. Japan = No Guard.”
“Ignoring some rubbish uni’s predictions I can understand, but as this is Toudai the repercussions will be big. Who’d buy new apartments in Tokyo now…”
“Remember, it’s magnitude 7.0, which is only shindo 6 or so. That’s not too bad.”
“Does anyone still believe these ridiculous percentages they keep coming out with?”
“I doubt the capital would be severely damaged, but the paralysis would be something else…”
“Please hurry up and correct this overconcentration!”
“Nobody minds if they get it wrong and it doesn’t happen, but if it happens unpredicted they will be hung out to dry – naturally it’s better to exaggerate the risk, isn’t being a seismologist great?”
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Yeah, and the Japanese where telling people it was "perfectly safe" near the nuclear reactors before and even now when all evidence shows it's fucking retarded to even THINK that...
Fukushima has had testing on the reactors DAYS ago showing they're still producing dangerous levels of radiation...
Kanto region...? Shit, how am I going to get the first 151 Pokemon now?
The Kanto area received 7.0 aftershocks from the 9.0 quake and no buildings collapsed. Big fucking deal.
Agree. Besides, I don't think that quake is gonna happen anyway. Not even in 4 years.
Don't aftershocks last longer than the initial quake as well?
Wait, what?...
No fucking way was there any 7.0 hitting Kanto, unless you include the very northern edge. I've lived in Tokyo continuously since the Touhoku quake and none of the aftershocks inland in the Kanto region were that strong.
Out at sea, yes... But those don't count, it's what the strength of the quake at the surface and location that matters.
“Tokyo is Doomed!”: 75% Chance of 7.0 Quake in 4 Years
“A 30% chance of it not coming – what a relief!”
Lol'd
inb4lol math
Focus Blast always misses >_>
Then the computer is a cheating bastard because it always seems to hit me.
Tokyo Magnitude 8.0's producers probably think they've tempted fate, now.
Tokyo Magnitude 8.0 was made because of similar predictions...
As were the various Bubblegum Crisis and AD Police anime back in the 80s and 90s, as they had a post-quake Tokyo rebuilt into Genom City by cyborgs called Boomers.
Ishitahara will blame 'em for it. Calling divine retribution or some shit
I thought the same thing when 2011 Quake happened.
maybe it will kill ishihara this time round yeah? but still this is pretty bad hope they are wrong.
Nah, he won't. He's a powerful politician. He will save himself first and leave any other commoner behind like all politicians and rich men do.
Takes nothing short of a zombie outbreak to kill him in a disaster. Incurable disease FTW.
Actually, I'm pretty sure most poor men would save their own skin too. Survival is human nature.
Now this is a great idea. To the evil laboratory!
Nah, we can always hope a building collapses on him. I sure they won't rebuild him, even if they have the technology.
I just jinxed it, didn't I?
he's the kind of guy who would "accidentally" fall into a lifeboat and leaving the entire ship sink.
ID software is to blame for tokyo's doom, their last quake was 4 so i bet the 5 one will be out there soon.
As long as no anime/VN studios, voice actors, and mangaka are lost. Ishihara's demise we could survive.
*Ishihara demise we could hope.
Fixed
Either way, life goes on.
Still, I pray that the people of Japan stay safe.
(Exception for certain I**shi*COUGH*h**ara)
hmm the post before this1 is "Bible Black Kurumi Imari Ero-Figure"..
somehow it makes the earthquake sound silly.. =/
What the heck is up with you guys? Saying such and such is 'no big deal' and playing all tough? Anything that can result in freak deaths is a pretty big deal. Plus, the elderly might get heartattacks and some younger people may have panic attacks and other issues on top.
Plus, all this 'oh we're totally fine' attitude is why the 2011 Tsunami took so many by surprise. Everybody can say how plum and ready you are. But we should not be making fun of natural disasters and mother nature. Especially in the light that nuclear reactors and the entire nation's infrastructure and economy could be in serious danger on top.
I've felt major tremors a few times in my life. And I always thank the stars I didn't get injured or hurt. I'm not going to brag about it. Just no point.
7.0 is not even remotely close to third impact, I guess theres still quite a long way till I get to see Ayanami-chan
As long as it's not Tokyo Magnitude 8.0 where the really bad stuff seems to happen and some little girl walks her kid brother home only to discover he really died on the way and was a ghost the rest of the series.
Most of Tokyo is built to survive a 7.0. that's about as high the magnitude got there during the 9.0 back on 3/11/11. Though any death will be tragic.
tl;dr "I GOT SODOMISED BY A JAPANESE WHEN I WAS A CHILD"
You forget a 7.0 magnitude can be pretty dangerous if you're outside.
at least their is fiction ... go on 4chan and lurk a little more on the net, then hang yourself .
you freak .
THE USA IS HOSTING MORE REAL CP THAN THE ENTIRE WORLD AND SHOULD BE NUKED TO DEATH FOR THAT , SOPA AND THE LIKE IS TOO NICE FOR YOU PEDO FUCK !
there , how does it feel ?
oh and btw, fuck your god, mine's bigger than you .
U MAD BRO?
TURKEYO IS DOOMED! DOOOOOOOOOMED!
DO NOT WORRY.
Neo Tokyo will rise from the ashes of Tokyo.
Doomsayers are at it again! Why do experts like to scare people to death?
Japan will become so uninhabitable, I'll be able to afford to live there. C:
Finally a feasible hook for my fanfiction. GOGO mag 8.9!
Perhaps it's time Tepco stops ignoring the obvious & upgrades to thorium powered plants. You know, before the next quake disaster contaminates more valuable land.
so there will be much more survival story manga from now on i presume ?
*Sigh* Guess I should stop my Nihongo lessons and start learning Korean or something :/
Lets pray for Japan.
if Japan's buildings can withstand a 7.5 or 8.0 magnitude,i wonder if American structures may able to that kind of feat.
I live in Mexicali, México, right in the border with the US, 2h from San Diego. We have "large" quakes every spring. We've been loosing a school week the past 4 or 5 years. Last one was a 7.2. The only things to fall were old fences and a parking lot that was in construction (incomplete=unstable). Some big buildings had to be demolished eventualy because they become unsafe, but didn't fall for a whole year. And we didn't had electricity for 12 hours, but it wasn't as long as when an energy plant in the US failed and kept South California and Baja California powerless.
In sumary, 7 IS bothersome, but worse things can happen. If I were in Japan I'd be more worried about the water.
They should build thruster engines for the buildings, like in Star Craft, so they can just levitate them when it shakes.
Oh, and I wouldn't live on a top floor of Toky skyscraper without my own parachute.
Well there go my plans to build the world's largest house of cards in Tokyo.
Shouldn't be a problem since the world will end this year anyway.
Save all the 2D girls/women!
Reminds me of "Tokyo Magnitude 8.0" anime. I hope it never happens in real life. Especially, after 11.3. That would be too much.
1st hikiko's
2nd low B/R suicide
3rd Ishihara-complex
4th loli com-Bo BREAKER
5th dubbing I mean scrubbing anime
yep time to get in the wayback machine 1990 here i come or 92 that was a good year for me ;)
Big woop, they have these warnings all the time. I guess they try to caution you to be prepared when really, it only causes panic.
well.. so ishihara says was true.. divine retribution just for him only...
Tokyo has been doomed since that old geezer Ishihara has gone senile and caved in to the pressure of censors & political activists from foreign countries.
If he didn't start screwing around with the industry all the negative psychic energy nao centered around him and his meddling could of staved off triggering the quake conditions.
Chances are that He will be at the links playing a round of golf (where its safe) when the shit happens.
Unfortunately - its inevitable now.
The damage is done & all we can do now is wait or get outta town before it comes down on your heads.
>>Most would agree that contemporary Japanese disaster-preparedness is second-to-none
Preparedness, maybee...
Response... you joking right ? or you totally missed the events following the great Tohoku earthquake...
As of January 2012... the governement response is still considered as a farce... (at least by Japanese or people living in Japan...)
I'm 500 km down south and the shit has not yet finished hitting the fan...
So what country exactly would it be second to in that area? Germany? Fuck no. Perhaps you mean China?
i dunno how u understood what the anon u replied to meant :/
omg why are you care what is going top hapen 2016,cuz 2012 is the doomsday
Japan must survive >o< !!
Japan should just buy some 3rd world country and relocate there.
No... instead, a GIANT engineering project using laser beams.
They will slice through the ground beneath Japan, parallel to the sea, then attach floats to the upper landmass, and turn Japan into islands floating on the top of the sea.
I think the mayans does'nt look not so stupid now :)
They are not the stupid ones. The ones who look stupid are all the doomsayers.
The Mayan calender works just like our calender. Unless you shit your pants every December 31st in fears of the world ending and January 1st never coming, there's no need to freak out over their calender.
"liars hired by TEPCO to push nuclear safety"
me or him, one of us is a retard
The only safe nuclear power is thorium based, everything else is public relations lies. And considering TEPCO ignored the issue before, the chances they'll build new, safer plants is ZERO. Instead they'll use more coal & natural gas burning plants, further contributing to greenhouse gasses.
I will visit Japan again sometime next year because the longer I wait to do it the worse the world situation seems to get.
too early to say
it all started since it is Kyuubey`s plan
in march 2011, kyuubey create the great tsunami
Why would it ever do that? There is no point in wasting so many potential energy sources.
I kinda doubt that 7.0 quake is gonna happen even if is only for 4 years.
Yeah, don't believe this 70% crap. I lived in California for decades, and for the past 30 years I've been hearing how some big earthquake was going to hit and sink the LA area into the ocean. Guess what, it never happened!
Yet...lol.
Worse yet, I believe that 7.0 is the most generous evaluation they're giving.
Seismic prediction is not much more different than weather; it may not happen at all, or it may happen with the loudest bang ever. Yellowstone has been loooooooong overdue for another explosion, and God knows that entire American continent will probably go to Hell when it does.
Also, I hope people reading this news don't forget about tsunami too.
but with yellowstone going off, we are no the only ones in danger. the ash will spread around the world. we dont know enuf to say how much it will effect the whole of the ecosystem, but it is likely that everyone in america is in danger, if not going to be dead instantly.
Let's see if we survive by the end of this year then we can worry about this...
Damn, and I've just started getting used to life in Tokyo recently.
But I thought most of the aftershocks around Tokyo after 3-11 last year was 6.0-7.0 anyway.
Oh well, if I'm "lucky" enough, maybe I'll get a new residence in Tokyo-3 and witness Human Instrumentation first hand come 2015 (fingers crossed, plenty of wood touched that it WOULDN'T happen).
someone should ask ishihara again about that whole divine retribution thing he mentioned...
collateral damage!!! should be his new answer according to my diviniation.
This is why i prefer Akita.
Everyone, we all need to pay attention to this guy. He used caps.
And you're a disgrace to the English language.
I guess they want the Japanese people to be scared. I don't get it though. What's the use in scaring people with statistics?
WTF is all with this bad news! It's like the world's about to end!!! Damn you MAYANS!
just your above-average "hype" i guess.
Oh crap!? So I must go back there before it happens!!
Or better yet, just afterwards so that can help rebuild and repopulate the place!
that reminds me, is that reactor still fucked?
LOUD NOISES!!!
...but I do agree that loli porn is CP.
...oh, and god isn't real.
Not that I like to defend pedos, but fuck you anon... I hate trolls who invoke god.
use gameshark
/sarcasm
Japan is always like this.
yeah some people will die, but they will get over it.
the end of the world comes after Japan accidentally nukes us all. didn't see that coming.
I have succeeded receiving shit with just 5% chance really often.
I shall grant my blessing upon Japan, and hope they receive the 30% chance of survival.
If it's only a 7.0, that's not too bad. The older infrastructure might take a beating but anything built recently has to be able to withstand that type of quake anyways.
they are not black and they are not located in haiti , so they should be fine . I would imagine japanese engineers took in consideration that japan is located on in active area prone to earthquakes .
Why do you think race is a factor in this?
What the fuck does them not being black have to do with anything?
It might not be a political correct thing to say, but you're kidding yourself if you don't see the race as an factor in post-crisis recovery.
The tsunami causes the great damage and loss of life. A 7.0 can easily wash away entire towns.
Tsunami=/=Earthquake
Only if the earthquake is strong enough to drop you from your feet.
A 7.0 magnitude earthquake cannot do that.
Yes, but a Earthquake can cause a Tsunami and that Tsunami can do heavy damage.
Only if you hire the worst possible civil engineers.
What got lost in translation is that the predicted 7.0M earthquake will be one where the epicentre is very close to the surface (直下型）resulting in much stronger shaking and damage. Just for comparison, a video from the Hanshin earthquake which was 6.8m with an epicentre directly under the surface.
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=XGcVP8QDZUs
I think the tsunami makes a bigger threat than the quake itself.
We're moving the capital to akihabara!
Which is in Tokyo.
*facepalm*
Akihabara is an area in Tokyo.
Plan B - move the entire city 5 miles down the road.
OH SHIT 2012!
whats wrong with 2012?
^Sounds like a new anime to me
Quick! Someone call John Cusak! He's the only one who can save us now!
SOPA, PIPA, COPPA, I think that's what he meant by oh shit 2012.
Hacker-Cracker NERD rage in 2012 will be the final destruction of the "civilized" world when banks-power plants-wall street-government servers become utterly corrupted and un-recoverable. Even systems off the net will crash due to nerds within and when the lights goes Dead in major mega-cities the nights will be lighted by 40 story roman candles!!!!
+
and then the final straw will be a few 7+ earthquakes to sweep off Japanese back into the stone age!!!!!
+
!!!!!!!!!!!2012!!!!!!!!!!!!
Really dude? 7.0 isn't that bad? That's a significant seismic event by ANY standard, and it shouldn't be taken lightly.
...lol, I'm guessing you don't live in an quake prone area.
It may not be anywhere close to the March 11 earthquake, but a quake of that magnitude is practically unheard of.
I live in the most elevated seismic area (Chile) and 7.0 is NOT a BIG thing
I passed for almost 8.0 in North Chile, it was sweet I must say. The ENTIRE CITY "danced".
Deaths? NONE.
Building that come down, houses, etc? NONE.
There was at least one per month (every month) above 4 there.
Above 4 = you can feel it.
Does Chile have tall compact buildings like Japan?
Worse structures than japan for sure.
it's not that we are tough...it's cause we are already used to it...and i know that the estructure in japanese buildings are way better but here it's not like we live in a jungle XD...here a little present http://img18.imageshack.us/img18/5782/myhomeb.jpg ....a little picture of santiago :D
Japan (and most of the world) have been aware of the fact that its in serious danger of seismic activity. When an earthqauke or tsunami hits, everyone is prepared. Sure, there'll be some damage but it won't be particuarly bad.
...Of course the news will make it seem massive.
lolz... a lot of tough guys from Chile here.
7.0 is really not that much.
Japan already got hit by a 6.8 this year. The one last year was 9.0 which is HUGE.
7.0 is a thousand times less powerful than we one last year. The chance that it hits japan is also pretty high, I mean 15 in a year on average for that size.
It's like saying it will with 70% certainty snow in 4 years.
The recent 7.0 they said hit Tokyo was off of China directly out of Taiwan. It was more than 2000 miles to the south of Tokyo I have no idea why they said it hit Japan. It was about 1 month ago.
well i live in chile that is a quake prone area and a 7.0 quake it's not a big deal...every time to time we got quakes around 5 and 6 and we don't move from our beds xD.
yesterday there was a 5.8 quake and i live in a 14 floor....i was watching anime and didn't even bother to stan up
a little picture of santiago :D...in a 14 floor xD
http://img18.imageshack.us/img18/5782/myhomeb.jpg
hmmm... both a 5 and a 6 are many times less powerful than a 7.o magnitude... but ok, it really sounds like you know what you're talking about.
Japan is a highly quake prone area. As such they have to build structures that can withstand earthquakes. Aside from that, I live in a quake prone area, been hit by a 7.0, and nothing around my area was significantly damaged, but aside from that, earthquakes here move in an up-down motion rather than a side-to-side motion like they do in japan. So no, a 7.0 is not a big deal, however it is not so small a deal either
ok they have had a few 7.0s after the 9.0 I was there for a 7.4. Its bad but they have had quiet a few and their buildings are build for such and earthquake. The worst part about7.0 is a tsunami
nobody gives a flying fuck what you think